S&P 5007,659.44-1.09%Nasdaq26,140.03-2.15%Dow52,002.41-0.34%Nikkei 22565,324.29+1.39%Hang Seng24,186.83+0.52%EuroStoxx 506,204.23+0.58%Dollar (DXY)101.84-0.16%EUR/USD1.12-0.17%USD/JPY157.96-0.12%GBP/USD1.33+0.27%USD/CNY6.68-0.21%US 10Y yield5.10+1bpUS 5Y yield4.90+0bpGold4,181.10+0.26%Silver57.31+0.82%Copper6.57+0.95%Platinum1,633.10+1.39%Palladium1,118.60-0.21%WTI99.02+1.07%Brent109.86+3.72%Henry Hub3.12-3.71%Gasoline3.14-1.13%Heating oil4.72-2.53%Wheat660.50-1.42%Corn474.25-0.78%Soybeans1,261.25-0.14%Coffee305.55+3.65%Sugar20.85-1.33%Cocoa5,686.00-2.49%Cotton80.00-0.07%Lithium ETF64.05-2.32%Uranium ETF35.43-1.91%Rare Earths ETF54.23-2.71%Copper Miners ETF79.98-1.05%Bitcoin81,038.58-0.42%Ethereum2,363.30-1.52%Solana101.86-1.41%S&P 5007,659.44-1.09%Nasdaq26,140.03-2.15%Dow52,002.41-0.34%Nikkei 22565,324.29+1.39%Hang Seng24,186.83+0.52%EuroStoxx 506,204.23+0.58%Dollar (DXY)101.84-0.16%EUR/USD1.12-0.17%USD/JPY157.96-0.12%GBP/USD1.33+0.27%USD/CNY6.68-0.21%US 10Y yield5.10+1bpUS 5Y yield4.90+0bpGold4,181.10+0.26%Silver57.31+0.82%Copper6.57+0.95%Platinum1,633.10+1.39%Palladium1,118.60-0.21%WTI99.02+1.07%Brent109.86+3.72%Henry Hub3.12-3.71%Gasoline3.14-1.13%Heating oil4.72-2.53%Wheat660.50-1.42%Corn474.25-0.78%Soybeans1,261.25-0.14%Coffee305.55+3.65%Sugar20.85-1.33%Cocoa5,686.00-2.49%Cotton80.00-0.07%Lithium ETF64.05-2.32%Uranium ETF35.43-1.91%Rare Earths ETF54.23-2.71%Copper Miners ETF79.98-1.05%Bitcoin81,038.58-0.42%Ethereum2,363.30-1.52%Solana101.86-1.41%

Prediction Market Calibration Monthly

We recorded Polymarket's macro odds all summer. 352 of those markets have now resolved. Here is how honest the prices were.

data as of 2026-10-07 · published 2026-10-07 · next update monthly (sample grows as snapshotted markets resolve)

TL;DR — the read in bullets

Across 352 resolved macro markets, the market's Brier score is 0.027 vs 0.132 for always guessing the base rate — a skill score of 79%. The odds carry real information.
Venn-ABERS (cross-fitted) Brier 0.026 vs 0.027 raw. Defensible miscalibration: the market is OVERPRICED for raw prices ~5%–28% (the entire band sits below the diagonal); underpriced ~2%–95%.

teaser chart

3 further findings, 2 charts and the rest of the analysis are in the full report.

They are absent from this page, not hidden. View-source and check.

The full report is on Full Access.

Already subscribed? Sign in.

MacroTerminal Research is market commentary and data analysis. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.