Prediction Market Depth Weekly
When “the market says 60%” — who is actually saying it? Holder concentration, whale positioning and flow across the macro universe.
data as of 2026-10-19 · published 2026-10-19 · next update weekly
TL;DR — the read in bullets
- Of 14 liquid macro markets scanned, 14 are concentrated (top-5 wallets hold ≥60% of the larger side) and only 0 are genuinely broad-based. Quoting the concentrated ones as 'the market thinks…' overstates the crowd.
- Divergence — “there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeti…”: price says 88% while the largest holders sit NO by 20%. Someone is wrong.
4 further findings, 1 chart and the rest of the analysis are in the full report.
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MacroTerminal Research is market commentary and data analysis. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.