Morning Macro Brief
Overnight moves across the tape, the stress index and the components behind it, what changed since yesterday's build, and the session's flagged headlines.
data as of 2026-10-18 · published 2026-10-19 · next update tomorrow, before the US open
TL;DR — the read in bullets
- 12 of 37 priced symbols closed the last session higher. Largest gain Brent +3.72%; largest fall Henry Hub -3.71%.
- Stress composite 5.4 of 100, rated Low. The largest contribution is Equity volatility at 1.8 points of the composite, from a raw 19.99 scored 7.7 at weight 0.2.
3 further findings, 1 chart and the rest of the analysis are in the full report.
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Where this is worked out
This daily is the surface. The analysis behind it is carried in these titles, which are on a paid plan:
- Rates Decomposition Weekly — Nominal into real and breakeven, the curve state, the term-premium proxy, and what followed that curve state before, with counts.
- Dollar and Petro-FX Weekly — Petro-currency links and their residuals, which spreads still pass the Engle-Granger gate, the dollar against its own record, and the cross-section behind it.
- Regime Weekly — The state per method, the agreement index, and what followed the completed risk-off episodes, with the count on every number.
MacroTerminal Research is market commentary and data analysis. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
MacroTerminal is a research publication and is not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.