72 panels · scored 28dupdated 2026-09-28 11:43 UTC
Data-grounded macro research. Every number computed at build time, dated and graded, and every signal scored against what actually happened.
Or start with this week’s reports · the open forecasts
Nothing here is typed in by hand. Every figure is pulled and computed when the page is built, and the as-of date and the grade travel with the number onto the chart.
Commodities, rates, FX, equities, crypto and systematic all read that one build, so a number cannot be one thing on one desk and something else on the next. Where a print has no price, it says so rather than carrying yesterday’s forward.
persist 10w
4 of 6 cross-asset voters cast a ballot this week; the other 2 abstained rather than guess, and abstentions are counted.
The classifier has held unsettled advance for 10 weeks, on a path debounced so a three-week wobble is not published as a regime change.
as of 2026-09-18 · grade D
WTI crude · front 12 · 3 vintages
WTI crude: Nov-26 at $92.41 against Nov-28 at $68.99, 24 months out.
Today's front-12 in gold with 1d, 1w behind it, across 5 markets — a shape only means something against its own recent history.
as of 2026-09-25 · grade D
z 0.76 · 7 of 8 advanced
| Month | Two-speed spread | S&P 500 next |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03 | 0.72 | +6.09% |
| 2024-07 | 0.75 | +4.59% |
| 2023-12 | 0.72 | +10.36% |
| 2023-04 | 0.73 | +9.38% |
| 2022-09 | 0.69 | +1.61% |
| 2021-08 | 0.68 | +4.79% |
| 2020-11 | 0.63 | +9.42% |
| 2020-01 | 0.85 | -15.75% |
The two-speed spread sits at z +0.76. The record holds 63 months that looked like this one.
The 8 closest are listed with what the S&P 500 did next; 7 of 8 advanced, and the misses stay on the table.
as of 2026-09-28 · grade D
RESOLVED · Brier 0.2112
18 forecasts are open, each carrying a machine-checkable threshold and a deadline set before publication.
12 have resolved at a mean Brier of 0.2112 against a base rate of 0.2513, and the misses are on the page.
as of 2026-09-28 · grade D
Crude (WTI) · 100.0th pct
Crude (WTI) managed-money net sits at +5,879 contracts, +3,132 on the week and in the 100th percentile of its own three-year record.
Across 9 contracts and 7 13F managers, a crowd and four accounts are read apart rather than folded into one adjective.
as of 2026-09-22 · grade D
0 of 19 survive FDR
3 of 19 cross-asset fundamentals clear a naive significance test, and 1 is what chance alone was expected to produce.
0 survive the false-discovery gate, so the factor model on 239 names over 2,359 observations is published as a null, not as an edge.
as of 2026-09-28 · grade N
A desk has no view and nothing to talk you into. You point it at a question and it comes back with the measurements it can actually make, each one dated and carrying the grade that evidence earns.
youIs crude positioning crowded?
Das of 2026-09-22 · grade D · open the commodities desk
youWhere is funding stress showing?
Das of 2026-09-24 · grade D · open the rates desk
youIs this filing an outlier among its peers?
Das of 2026-09-11 · grade D · open the equities desk
youHas the petro-currency link broken?
Das of 2026-09-28 · grade D · open the fx desk
youIs the Treasury curve steepening?
Das of 2026-09-25 · grade D · open the rates desk
youAre the sensors agreeing, or is one shouting?
Das of 2026-09-28 · grade D · open the cross-asset
youHow thin is bitcoin liquidity right now?
Das of 2026-09-25 · grade D · open the crypto desk
youWhich half of the economy is running hot?
Das of 2026-09-28 · grade D · open the systematic desk
13 inputs, every build
Positioning, inventories, volatility, funding, issuance, company fundamentals and shipping, pulled again on every build and dated at the moment each one was current, so no number is carried forward under a later date.
30.2th of its own record
A series means nothing on its own, so each one is computed at build time and set against its own record. Direction is the sign and extremity is the percentile, and the two are never folded together into a single adjective.
28d · 12 of 50 resolved
A forecast carries its threshold and its deadline before publication, and it is scored 28 days later whichever way it went. Nothing is called tested until 50 resolved observations clear the pre-registered floor, and the count is shown while it is short.
Each figure on this site travels with the date it was current and the grade the validation layer gave the evidence behind it — not as a footnote, but attached to the number itself. Where a reading is missing, the page says so and as of when, rather than carrying yesterday’s forward under today’s date.
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